Thursday, August 22, 2019

isolation from the global institutions is shooting oneself on the foot

China made a mistake in the past with its closed door policy to isolate itselffrom foreign influences.It to a decline in scientific and technological innovations and lower standard of living.
              Realising it had to compete at international level,it decided to become a global palyer under Deng Xiao Peng's economic liberalization experiments in the special economic zones.
                In the 1990s,China under the leadership of Zhu RongJi wasdetermined to get into the WTO.Zhu famously said."I've prepared 100 coffins,99 for corrupt official and one for myself." It's hard to think of a more courageous statement.Clinton despite all his fine rhetoric about keeping the world open couldnt match Zhu's courage.
                 The fundamental reason that China and America have been goingb on in opposite directions is because the Chinese triedthe isolated Middle Kingdom" approach.it failed It made China weak.China now wants to engage the world and its international organizations.
              The contrasting attitudes of America and China to international treaties and conventions and international organizations may surprise a lay reader.Much of the international fabric that provided the foundation for these treaties and organizations rested on ideas generated in theUS.Yet China has a better track record than America in the field of ratifying international treaties and conventions as well as joining international organizations.China has signed and ratified international agreements the US has refused to sign or ratify including the Biodiversity Convention,The Kyoto Protocol on Climate,the Hazardous Wastes Convention,and the law of the Sea treaty.By contrast,while China has been embracing the WTO and opening itself up to more international trade,American policymakers have progressively turned away from the WTO even though the WTO is essentially an American creation.It has not ratified the TPP which Obama had been pushing as a multilateral trading system and oushing for unilateralism.
             America suffers from three systemic challenges:groupthink,the erosion of individual responsibility and an inability to see how its abuse of power has contributed to many of the problems it now confronts abroad.many Americans are oblivious to the structural failures within their system of governance(dominated by special interests,(their social contract)-characterised by a widening gap between rich and poor and their response to globalisation (increased protectionism)Deep structural reforms are necessary in America to avert an inevitable failure.Tom Friedman states "Our country faces  a big choice right now.We can either have a hard decade or a bad century"
                                            The Great Convergence
                                            Author"Kishore Mahbubani

Friday, August 9, 2019

Disposable income

Growth will be driven by domestic demand in future in China.Chart by OECD countries in 2017 compares a few industrialised nations middle class disposable incomes in 2017.Standing out is China's urban cities at more that 6.5 compared to Japan at  0.8,Germany at 1.7,the US at 2.3,the UK at negative0.2.The Chinese statistic between 2015 and 2030 sees a drastic rise by 2xin disposable incomes of the elite upper class from 3 to 7,the upper middle class and the middle class.Poverty in the low class is reduced a lot too.So growth can still be consumer driven in China.
           In developed nations,student loan,mortagage and car repayment and high medical burden cuts away the reserve of liquidity and disposable incomes of the middle class.
          The demand for electronic and cars will skyrocket when disposable incomes in rural regions of China increase.There is still inequality in distribution in urban areas like Shanghai,Beijing,Zhejiang and Guangzhou surpassing areas in Yunnan,Guishou and etc.
    Still there is need to look at household indebtedness figures before any conclusion can be made.