Friday, October 29, 2021

South China Sea

Robert Kaplan in his book Asias Cauldron that south china sea territorial dispute over spratly and paracel islands would be a zone of potential conflict instead of aseans zone of peace,freedom and neutrality.What is Chinas agenda to build artificial islands on reefs in the disputed region with overlapping claims by littoral states like Phillipnes,Brunei,Malaysia and Vietnam.throw in Indonesias complaints of their fishing boats being harrrassed by chinese vessels,the picture looks grim indeed.China has claim territories based on its unilaterally drawn nine dash lines which it claimed historical evidence of early settlements.but asean nations refer to the international law to back up their claims. so why is China which for centuries were not interested in territorial conquest in south or east asia now starting to asssert its power by flexing its muscles.one reason is its need for natural resources like gas to fuel its energy needs to power its megacities and industries.like why Japan imperialist plans to tàp the natural resources of sputh east asia in world war 2 under so called regional greater sphete of co prosperity,so now China is playing the same cue cards.so if not militarization of south china sea,why did China build artificial islands,build runways n position navy ships there.surely its not meant to draw tourist attraction or set up fishing industry.thats too far fetched for asean to believe.the agenda but everyone pretends not to see the elephant in the room. Aseanitself is not so cohesive like EC.apart from its economic cohesion,the EC has common currency,common european law court of justice,common military solidarity in Nato.Asean only works in unison on economic integration but apart from that,its mind your own business.so none maritime Asean nations like Thailand,Cambodia or Laos would not dare offend china by calling out its transgressions as china gives lots of developmental aid to them and thailand tourism depends on china tourists. that shuts up one of the most vociferous stronghold of Asean ,Thailand and the other is Indonesia which doesnt want to rock the boat of China as it needs developmental aid and investment.so for the small fry ,they need outside allies like the US and Quad and Ankus before they risk being overwhelmed by the technologically advanced military of China. China has used its superior technology to map the ocean floor seabed of the south china sea and even the mariana trench.they can unlock the frozen gas in the seabed using their latest extractive technology.its not a matter of if china makes its move,then how but a matter of when. emboldened by fanning the fervour of nationalism of its government,the citizens jump onto the bandwagon as chinese fishing boats start intruding on fishing grounds of phillipines,indonesia,malaysia and vietnam.they know that their government will send back up if they are threatened so they violate international maritime borders without fear of being chased away. so when China pays lip service to cooperation with asean,its time asean take a step back,reassess its own security arrangements in this geopolitical tension and contribute to patrolling its own waterway from pirates,intruding military and rapacious fishing fleets.if not a spark can ignite superpowers fighting a proxy war in its own backyard and create millions of refugees like during the vietnam war.

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